ArcelorMittal’s Polish subsidiary delivered a symbolic blow last month, announcing the permanent shuttering of its historic Huta Królewska plant in Chorzów. The facility, whose ageing assets had become a financial drag, will cease all operations by year-end. Management noted it accounted for less than 1% of the group’s Polish output, and that a recent 30m-złoty ($8.2m) upgrade had failed to secure its viability in Europe’s saturated steel landscape.

The pain is equally acute across emerging markets. India’s stainless sector, according to the nation’s Stainless Steel Development Association (ISSDA), is reeling from a flood of cheap imports, priced 20-25% below domestic offerings. The grim consequences: 150 small and mid-sized mills have already closed, with a further 50 operating below capacity.

In South Korea, POSCO’s Pohang complex remains idle after a deadly gas leak early November—a second safety incident later that month delayed restart plans, tightening regional supply.

The world’s largest stainless producer is no exception. Output among 43 major Chinese mills fell 1.7% month-on-month in November. Data from I Want Stainless reveals sharper cuts ahead: Tsingshan Group, Baosteel Desheng and Angang Lianzhong are slashing 400-series output by 25-30% this month, with some reductions potentially lasting through February.

Meanwhile, Wuzhou Jinhai began a 21-day maintenance halt on December 10th (cutting 60,000 tonnes), and Beigang New Materials trimmed 80,000 tonnes of 200-series output over November-December. State giant Tisco reported accumulated cuts of 470,000 tonnes through October—a drop exceeding 5%—with Baosteel Desheng alone trimming 231,600 tonnes.

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Beneath the cyclical slump lie chronic vulnerabilities. China’s stainless sector remains dangerously exposed to raw-material geopolitics: 95% of its nickel and over 98% of chromium are imported, together constituting 70% of production costs. Yet despite precarious external supplies, domestic capacity has ballooned to 50m tonnes—with utilisation languishing near 70%.

This mismatch has ignited cut-throat competition downstream, squeezing margins ever thinner. As producers worldwide grapple with overcapacity and price erosion, the industry’s winter looks set to be both deep and long.